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Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mountain Chickadee Population Trend in Nevada

All statesForest birds

Mountain Chickadee in Nevada has collapsed: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

-91%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mountain Chickadee Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mountain Chickadee has collapsed in Nevada: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

Mountain Chickadee Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Chickadee in Nevada is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±187.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±187.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Chickadee in Nevada is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±187.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.001.8
20260.000.001.8
20270.000.001.8
20280.000.001.8
20290.000.001.8

Mountain Chickadee Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Mountain Chickadee in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jarbidge720151997
Hawthorne720011997
Eureka419921992
Gardnerville 2320242024
Ranchogrande219991991
Humboldt Nf 2220242024
Willis220191988
Comins Lake120162006
Humboldt Nf120141994
Fish Creek120181997
Austin120122010
Walker Can120241968
Mizpah120001993
Ruby Valley119971997
Illipah120131991
Gardnerville119961996

Mountain Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananew-mexicooregonutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.