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Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mountain Chickadee Population Trend in Oregon

All statesForest birds

Mountain Chickadee in Oregon has edged down: down 15% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-15%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
70Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mountain Chickadee Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mountain Chickadee in Oregon. See the full index history below.

Mountain Chickadee Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Chickadee in Oregon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.8 (95% range 4.0–9.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.0–9.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Chickadee in Oregon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.8 (95% range 4.0–9.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.73.99.6
20266.83.99.6
20276.83.99.6
20286.83.99.7
20296.84.09.7

Mountain Chickadee Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Mountain Chickadee in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Paunina6220241993
Bald Mtn.4820241992
Barnes Val4519871971
Sisters4520241997
Donnelly3920061994
Lakeview3820241996
Desolation3220071993
Chinchalo3120241993
Davis Lake2620242000
Ochoco2419821972
Lapham Res.2220241991
Barnhouse2120241998
Silvies2020241994
Bly 21920242007
Mount Vernon1920241986
Elk Lake1920241972
Bly1920011973
Paisley1820241973
Silver Creek1720241984
Hash Rock1720241983
Howard Mdws.1620241992
Hells Canyon1620221992
Donelly 21520242018
Eagle Creek1520221993
Picture Flat1420241993

Mountain Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.