BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mountain Chickadee Population Trend in Oregon

All statesForest birds

Mountain Chickadee in Oregon has held roughly steady: down 8% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-8%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mountain Chickadee Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mountain Chickadee in Oregon. See the full index history below.

Mountain Chickadee Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Chickadee in Oregon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 6.9 (95% range 4.0–9.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.0–9.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Chickadee in Oregon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 6.9 (95% range 4.0–9.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.84.09.6
20276.84.09.7
20286.84.09.7
20296.94.09.7
20306.94.09.7

Mountain Chickadee Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Mountain Chickadee in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bald Mtn.9120251992
Wallowa5620252025
Barnes Val4519871971
Paunina4220251993
Donnelly3920061994
Lakeview3920251996
Sisters3520251997
Lapham Res.3420251991
Howard Mdws.3220251992
Davis Lake3120252000
Elk Lake2920251972
Ochoco2820251993
Bly 22620252007
Ochoco2419821972
Silver Creek2320251984
Barnhouse2320251998
Deschutes2120251968
Paisley2020251973
Silvies2020241994
Mount Vernon1920241986
Bly1920011973
Chinchalo1920251993
Monument1620251993
Picture Flat1520251993
Hash Rock1520251983

Mountain Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananevadanew-mexicoutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.