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Species · Colorado · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mountain Chickadee Population Trend in Colorado

All statesForest birds

Mountain Chickadee in Colorado has surged: up 111% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+111%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
93Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mountain Chickadee Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mountain Chickadee has surged in Colorado: up 111% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Mountain Chickadee Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Chickadee in Colorado is projected to rise about 40% by 2030 — from 2.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 2.3–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+40%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–5.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Chickadee in Colorado is projected to rise about 40% by 2030 — from 2.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 2.3–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.72.15.2
20273.72.25.3
20283.82.25.3
20293.82.35.4
20303.92.35.4

Mountain Chickadee Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording Mountain Chickadee in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pinos Creek4319901988
Gold Hill2220121998
Tarryall1820251988
Deadman Rd.1720251992
Mount Evans1720241996
Gold Hill 21420252018
Trail Ridge Road1320142003
Lost Lake1020251990
Dunckley Pas1020251992
Weston Pass 21020252001
Blackhead Pk920251991
Guanella Pas920251992
Tincup920251992
Flattops820251993
Steamboat L.820251996
Rifle Falls820251998
Moon Pass820251998
Gardner820251998
Dolores Riv720251988
Pinon720251992
Weston Pass720001995
Stillwater Pass720091998
Aspen620251984
Parlin620251968
Guffey620251990

Mountain Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.