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Species · Colorado · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mountain Chickadee Population Trend in Colorado

All statesForest birds

Mountain Chickadee in Colorado has surged: up 119% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+119%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
90Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mountain Chickadee Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mountain Chickadee has surged in Colorado: up 119% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Mountain Chickadee Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Chickadee in Colorado is projected to rise about 42% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 2.3–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+42%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–5.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Chickadee in Colorado is projected to rise about 42% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 2.3–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.72.15.2
20263.72.25.3
20273.82.25.3
20283.82.35.4
20293.92.35.4

Mountain Chickadee Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording Mountain Chickadee in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pinos Creek4319901988
Buffalo Park4220231992
Deadman Rd.3420241992
Gold Hill2220121998
Mount Evans1720241996
Cochetopa Pass1320241998
Trail Ridge Road1320142003
Lost Lake1220241990
Red Cliff1220241989
Dunckley Pas1120241992
Guanella Pas1020241992
Steamboat L.1020241996
Como1020241994
Stillwater Pass 21020242010
Gold Hill 21020242018
Owl Creek Pass920241998
Gardner920241998
Blackhead Pk820211991
Angora820221998
Weston Pass 2820242001
Pinon720241992
Fox Creek720241995
Lake City 2720242017
Weston Pass720001995
Stillwater Pass720091998

Mountain Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.