BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mountain Chickadee Population Trend in Arizona

All statesForest birds

Mountain Chickadee in Arizona has increased: up 45% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+45%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mountain Chickadee Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mountain Chickadee in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Mountain Chickadee Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Chickadee in Arizona is projected to fall about 17% by 2030 — from 3.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.39–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±114.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.39–5.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±114.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Chickadee in Arizona is projected to fall about 17% by 2030 — from 3.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.39–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±114.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.60.315.0
20272.70.335.0
20282.70.355.0
20292.70.375.0
20302.70.395.0

Mountain Chickadee Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Mountain Chickadee in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sawmill3620141988
Williams2520251993
Happy Jack2520251977
Mt. Graham1720251995
Alpine1620251992
Tsaile1620231993
Dry Park1320251992
Maine1220251992
Flagstaff920251988
Mormon Lake719751968
Aztec Peak519781974
Tonto Vill.520251992
Pinetop520221993
Sprucedale520251993
Forest Lakes420251992
Round Rock319721970
Prescott320251975
House Rock220081968
Zeniff219721968
Blue219901974
Clay Spring219901990
Carr Mtn220171987
Mt Trumbull119801980
Black Mesa119951988
Skull Valley 2120252025

Mountain Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahomontananevadanew-mexicooregonutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.