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Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mountain Chickadee Population Trend in Arizona

All statesForest birds

Mountain Chickadee in Arizona has held roughly steady: up 6% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+6%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mountain Chickadee Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mountain Chickadee in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Mountain Chickadee Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Chickadee in Arizona is projected to rise about 180% by 2029 — from 0.94 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 0.30–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±143.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+180%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.30–5.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±143.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Chickadee in Arizona is projected to rise about 180% by 2029 — from 0.94 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 0.30–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±143.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.60.224.9
20262.60.244.9
20272.60.264.9
20282.60.285.0
20292.60.305.0

Mountain Chickadee Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Mountain Chickadee in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sawmill3620141988
Williams1820191993
Tsaile1620231993
Maine1220241992
Mt. Graham1020231995
Forest Lakes920241992
Mormon Lake719751968
Happy Jack720241977
Tonto Vill.620211992
Flagstaff520221988
Aztec Peak519781974
Dry Park520241992
Pinetop520221993
Prescott420221975
Round Rock319721970
House Rock220081968
Zeniff219721968
Blue219901974
Alpine220231992
Clay Spring219901990
Carr Mtn220171987
Sprucedale220231993
Mt Trumbull119801980
Black Mesa119951988
Cow Springs120191992

Mountain Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahomontananevadanew-mexicooregonutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.