BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mountain Chickadee Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Mountain Chickadee in New Mexico has surged: up 119% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+119%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mountain Chickadee Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mountain Chickadee has surged in New Mexico: up 119% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Mountain Chickadee Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Chickadee in New Mexico is projected to rise about 22% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.55–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.55–3.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Chickadee in New Mexico is projected to rise about 22% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.55–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.10.523.6
20262.10.533.6
20272.10.543.6
20282.10.543.6
20292.10.553.7

Mountain Chickadee Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Mountain Chickadee in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cloudcroft2120241975
Reserve1720231993
Mt. Taylor 21620242014
Bluewater Lake1520211999
Angel Fire1220021992
Emory Pass1220241993
Angel Fire 21120242005
Mt. Taylor1120121993
Cebolla1020231973
Ojo Sarco720241968
Pecos720171973
Stinking Lk.719991992
Claunch420001977
Vallecitos420241994
Pinon420171992
Mcgaffey320231995
Claunch 2320242001
Fence Lake220241975
Dulce220232000
Gallinas220241992
Mountainair220091999
Vicks Peak220231992
Capulin119931993
La Cienega119691969
Horse Spgs120171977

Mountain Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.