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Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mountain Chickadee Population Trend in Utah

All statesForest birds

Mountain Chickadee in Utah has edged up: up 14% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+14%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
56Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mountain Chickadee Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mountain Chickadee in Utah. See the full index history below.

Mountain Chickadee Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Chickadee in Utah is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 2.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.62–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.62–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Chickadee in Utah is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 2.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.62–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.00.553.4
20272.00.573.5
20282.00.593.5
20292.00.603.5
20302.10.623.5

Mountain Chickadee Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Mountain Chickadee in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Grizzly Rdge4820251986
Navajo Lake3020251968
Dixie Nf2120251993
La Sal2020001993
Lost Cr. Res1620181995
Hite1619921992
Wasatch Nf1520241988
Bryce Canyon1420251990
Fayette1320251992
Heber Mtn.1120251996
Fish Lake Nf820251992
Soapstone620251992
Alton 2620252021
Ferron620252000
Uintah Nf619941987
La Sal 3620252007
La Sal 2520062003
Alton520171997
Glen Canyon520041992
Moon Lake 2420232004
Gooseberry420251994
Woodruff320242002
Kamas320112011
Monticello320251998
Main Canyon320251987

Mountain Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.