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Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mountain Chickadee Population Trend in Utah

All statesForest birds

Mountain Chickadee in Utah has held roughly steady: up 10% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+10%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
56Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mountain Chickadee Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mountain Chickadee in Utah. See the full index history below.

Mountain Chickadee Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Chickadee in Utah is projected to fall about 44% by 2029 — from 3.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.54–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-44%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.54–3.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Chickadee in Utah is projected to fall about 44% by 2029 — from 3.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.54–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.90.483.4
20261.90.493.4
20272.00.513.4
20282.00.523.4
20292.00.543.4

Mountain Chickadee Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Mountain Chickadee in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Grizzly Rdge5820241986
Navajo Lake4820241968
Dixie Nf2720241993
La Sal2020001993
Bryce Canyon1920241990
Lost Cr. Res1620181995
Hite1619921992
Wasatch Nf1520241988
Heber Mtn.1120241996
Fish Lake Nf920241992
La Sal 3820242007
Ferron620182000
Uintah Nf619941987
La Sal 2520062003
Fayette520181992
Alton520171997
Monticello520031998
Glen Canyon520041992
Moon Lake 2420232004
Soapstone420241992
Beaver320241974
Woodruff320242002
Kamas320112011
Newcastle320211999
Beck219871969

Mountain Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananevadanew-mexicooregonwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.