BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mountain Chickadee In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesForest birds

Mountain Chickadee in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 565% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

+565%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mountain Chickadee has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 565% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

Mountain Chickadee In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Chickadee in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 47% by 2029 — from 0.39 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.02–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-47%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±76.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Chickadee in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 47% by 2029 — from 0.39 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.02–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.190.010.37
20260.190.010.38
20270.200.010.38
20280.200.020.39
20290.200.020.39

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Mountain Chickadee in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Maynard CouleeMONTANA242024
MoskeeWYOMING71985
HighwoodMONTANA31972
Reed PointMONTANA32024
Two DotMONTANA12005
Flatwillow 2MONTANA12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.