BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mountain Chickadee In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

Mountain Chickadee in Northern Pacific Rainforest has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-53%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mountain Chickadee has fallen sharply in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Mountain Chickadee In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Chickadee in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 254% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±205.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+254%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±205.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Chickadee in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 254% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±205.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.002.4
20261.10.002.4
20271.10.002.3
20281.10.002.3
20291.10.002.3

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Mountain Chickadee in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mt ShastaCALIFORNIA262019
South Fork MtnCALIFORNIA262022
MccloudCALIFORNIA222021
Elk LakeOREGON192024
Pilot CreekCALIFORNIA161996
Hay ForkCALIFORNIA142017
CarrvilleCALIFORNIA121970
French GulchCALIFORNIA92011
Burnt RanchCALIFORNIA82016
DirigioCALIFORNIA72014
Ship Mtn.CALIFORNIA72016
ClearwaterOREGON42021
HullvilleCALIFORNIA32019
Junction CtyCALIFORNIA32011
Emigrant Lake 2OREGON32024
Mt RainierWASHINGTON32019
Shasta LakeCALIFORNIA21982
NavarroCALIFORNIA21973
OrleansCALIFORNIA21977
WhiskeytownCALIFORNIA22012
ShellrockOREGON21973
Cool CampOREGON22003
SelmaOREGON22023
ProspectOREGON22016
Offield MtnCALIFORNIA12011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.