BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruby-crowned Kinglet Population Trend in Montana

All statesForest birds

Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Montana has risen sharply: up 51% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+51%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ruby-crowned Kinglet Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruby-crowned Kinglet has risen sharply in Montana: up 51% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Ruby-crowned Kinglet Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Montana is projected to rise about 73% by 2029 — from 3.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.3 (95% range 3.7–8.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+73%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.7–8.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±72.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Montana is projected to rise about 73% by 2029 — from 3.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.3 (95% range 3.7–8.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.03.48.6
20266.13.58.7
20276.23.68.7
20286.23.68.8
20296.33.78.9

Ruby-crowned Kinglet Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pagil Gulch3520242015
Hebgen Lake2920242017
Sula2620241977
Cramer Creek2320191994
Skalkho-Rye2320221999
Maynard Coulee2320242017
Woodman1820241968
East Glacier Park1620242015
Fish Creek1620241995
Greenough1520041996
Pryor Mtn.1420241995
Chestnut1420241968
Greenoagh 21420112005
Ninemile1420241993
Clancy1420232015
Elevation Mt1220242003
Greenoagh 31220242012
Logan Pass1120241980
Wise River1120241993
Victor920241993
Inside Road920231990
Elliston820241968
Skalkaho719981992
Arlee620241968
St Regis520241977

Ruby-crowned Kinglet Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomainemichiganminnesotanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorkoregonsouth-dakotautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.