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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruby-crowned Kinglet Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Minnesota has held roughly steady: up 2% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+2%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ruby-crowned Kinglet Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Ruby-crowned Kinglet Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Minnesota is projected to rise about 41% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.46 (95% range 0.11–0.81). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+41%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.46Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.11–0.8195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Minnesota is projected to rise about 41% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.46 (95% range 0.11–0.81). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.460.110.81
20260.460.110.81
20270.460.110.81
20280.460.110.81
20290.460.110.81

Ruby-crowned Kinglet Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hovland520221974
Sawbill Camp420241993
Sawbill Lndg320241973
Sherry Lake320181969
Babbitt320231994
Chisholm320242022
Backus219781978
Hart Lake220241967
Bemidji219801979
Crane Lake220221969
Little Fork220231972
Nett Lake220182016
Jordan220221993
Red Lake220241993
Cass Lake120111980
Nebish119951982
Cromwell120241967
Mille Lacs120182013
Evergreen119801980
Lockport120241967
Floodwood120241972
Island Lake119891969
Cohasset119891989
Oklee119881983
Debs120171981

Ruby-crowned Kinglet Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.