BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruby-crowned Kinglet Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesForest birds

Ruby-crowned Kinglet in South Dakota has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1975.

13×Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ruby-crowned Kinglet Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruby-crowned Kinglet has surged in South Dakota: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Ruby-crowned Kinglet Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Ruby-crowned Kinglet in South Dakota is projected to rise about 154% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 0.00–8.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±235.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+154%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±235.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruby-crowned Kinglet in South Dakota is projected to rise about 154% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 0.00–8.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±235.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.00.008.6
20264.00.008.7
20274.10.008.7
20284.10.008.8
20294.20.008.8

Ruby-crowned Kinglet Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Ruby-crowned Kinglet in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Black Fox5720171992
Hill City5520131996
Long Draw3420241992
Englewood2820211992
Rochford1520181996
Norbeck1320021992
Elk Mountain720041992
Roubaix Lk319911981
Silver City320121993
Custer220241970
Hazelrodt120161992
Lightning Cr120101992

Ruby-crowned Kinglet Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomainemichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorkoregonutahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.