BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ruby-crowned Kinglet Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesForest birds

Ruby-crowned Kinglet in South Dakota has surged: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1975.

16×Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ruby-crowned Kinglet Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruby-crowned Kinglet has surged in South Dakota: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Ruby-crowned Kinglet Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Ruby-crowned Kinglet in South Dakota is projected to rise about 121% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 0.00–8.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±228.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+121%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±228.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruby-crowned Kinglet in South Dakota is projected to rise about 121% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 0.00–8.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±228.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.80.008.5
20273.90.008.6
20283.90.008.6
20294.00.008.6
20304.00.008.7

Ruby-crowned Kinglet Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Ruby-crowned Kinglet in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Black Fox5720171992
Hill City5520131996
Long Draw4720251992
Englewood2820211992
Rochford1520181996
Norbeck1320021992
Elk Mountain720041992
Custer420251970
Roubaix Lk319911981
Silver City320121993
Hazelrodt120161992
Lightning Cr120101992

Ruby-crowned Kinglet Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.