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Species · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ruby-crowned Kinglet Population Trend in Alaska

All statesForest birds

Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Alaska has surged: up 129% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+129%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
106Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ruby-crowned Kinglet Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruby-crowned Kinglet has surged in Alaska: up 129% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Ruby-crowned Kinglet Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Alaska is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 7.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.5 (95% range 4.1–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.1–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Alaska is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 7.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.5 (95% range 4.1–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.44.015
20279.44.015
20289.44.115
20299.44.115
20309.54.115

Ruby-crowned Kinglet Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Haines4220251989
Lake Louise4220251993
Chichagof Is3420241994
Sourdough3320251983
Dillingham (Short)3319841984
Seward3119921982
Yakutat3020251993
Dillingham2920191995
Homer2819821978
Cordova2620241983
Skilak Lake2319851982
Hoonah2320241993
Moose Pass2119921983
Kuiu Island2120102004
Chena Hot Spring 22020251999
Ft. Richrdsn2020231994
Kanuti Lake2020242006
Goose Bay1719821982
L Salcha1620251994
Koyukuk Riv.1620011994
Copper River1520111994
Tower Bluffs1420251994
Savage1420251986
Swan Lake Rd1420251982
Kenai Lake (Short)1419921984

Ruby-crowned Kinglet Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.