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Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruby-crowned Kinglet Population Trend in Alaska

All statesForest birds

Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Alaska has surged: up 128% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+128%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
106Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ruby-crowned Kinglet Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruby-crowned Kinglet has surged in Alaska: up 128% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Ruby-crowned Kinglet Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Alaska is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 7.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.6 (95% range 4.2–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.2–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Alaska is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 7.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.6 (95% range 4.2–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.54.115
20269.54.115
20279.54.115
20289.64.215
20299.64.215

Ruby-crowned Kinglet Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hope5420241985
Sourdough4420241983
Haines3520241989
Chichagof Is3420241994
Dillingham (Short)3319841984
Seward3119921982
Dillingham2920191995
Homer2819821978
Cordova2620241983
Kalifonsky2520231982
Skilak Lake2319851982
Hoonah2320241993
Moose Pass2119921983
Yakutat2120241993
Kuiu Island2120102004
Ft. Richrdsn2020231994
Kanuti Lake2020242006
Zimovia Strt1920241989
Petersville1920241986
Ruby1920241994
L Salcha1820231994
Kuskulana1820241990
Goose Bay1719821982
Koyukuk Riv.1620011994
Copper River1520111994

Ruby-crowned Kinglet Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.