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Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ruby-crowned Kinglet Population Trend in Utah

All statesForest birds

Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Utah has surged: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1974.

12×Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ruby-crowned Kinglet Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruby-crowned Kinglet has surged in Utah: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Ruby-crowned Kinglet Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Utah is projected to rise about 56% by 2030 — from 3.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.5 (95% range 3.4–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+56%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.4–7.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±75.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Utah is projected to rise about 56% by 2030 — from 3.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.5 (95% range 3.4–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.13.17.2
20275.23.27.3
20285.33.27.3
20295.43.37.4
20305.53.47.5

Ruby-crowned Kinglet Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Grizzly Rdge6420251986
Navajo Lake4620251970
Red Spur Mtn.3520231997
Woodruff2620252002
La Sal2120001993
Ferron2020252000
La Sal 31720252007
Wasatch Nf1620241988
Dixie Nf1320251993
Skyline Driv1220251986
Uintah Nf1219941988
Heber Mtn.1120251996
Soapstone1020251992
Moon Lake 2920232006
La Sal 2920062003
Logan Canyon820191997
Lost Cr. Res620181995
Fish Lake Nf620251992
Beaver520251968
Beck419871977
Newcastle320212021
Saleratus Cr220042004
Alton 2220242023
Beck 2220251990
Main Canyon220251987

Ruby-crowned Kinglet Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.