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Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruby-crowned Kinglet Population Trend in Utah

All statesForest birds

Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Utah has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1974.

13×Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ruby-crowned Kinglet Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruby-crowned Kinglet has surged in Utah: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Ruby-crowned Kinglet Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Utah is projected to rise about 70% by 2029 — from 3.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.5 (95% range 3.5–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+70%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.5–7.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±79.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Utah is projected to rise about 70% by 2029 — from 3.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.5 (95% range 3.5–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.23.27.2
20265.33.37.3
20275.33.37.4
20285.43.47.4
20295.53.57.5

Ruby-crowned Kinglet Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Grizzly Rdge7520241986
Red Spur Mtn.3520231997
Dixie Nf2720241993
La Sal2120001993
Navajo Lake1720241970
Ferron1620222000
Wasatch Nf1620241988
La Sal 31420242007
Gooseberry1220231994
Uintah Nf1219941988
Woodruff1120242002
Moon Lake 2920232006
La Sal 2920062003
Fish Lake Nf920241992
Logan Canyon820191997
Lost Cr. Res620181995
Soapstone620241992
Beaver520241968
Beck 2520181990
Beck419871977
Heber Mtn.420241996
Bryce Canyon320241990
M Warner Res320181995
Newcastle320212021
Saleratus Cr220042004

Ruby-crowned Kinglet Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.