BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ruby-crowned Kinglet Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Ruby-crowned Kinglet in New Mexico has edged down: down 14% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-14%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ruby-crowned Kinglet Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ruby-crowned Kinglet in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Ruby-crowned Kinglet Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Ruby-crowned Kinglet in New Mexico is projected to rise about 350% by 2030 — from 0.14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.61 (95% range 0.15–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±131.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+350%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.61Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.15–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±131.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruby-crowned Kinglet in New Mexico is projected to rise about 350% by 2030 — from 0.14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.61 (95% range 0.15–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±131.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.590.131.0
20270.590.141.1
20280.600.141.1
20290.610.151.1
20300.610.151.1

Ruby-crowned Kinglet Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Ruby-crowned Kinglet in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cebolla1220221973
Mt. Taylor1020121997
Bluewater Lake920191999
Angel Fire520021992
Mt. Taylor 2420242014
Angel Fire 2320252005
Vallecitos220251994
Cloudcroft220241982
Ojo Sarco120251968
Emory Pass120001997
Gallinas120142014
Horse Mtn119971992
Claunch 2120142001
Mcgaffey119951995

Ruby-crowned Kinglet Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomainemichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-yorkoregonsouth-dakotautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.