BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruby-crowned Kinglet Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Ruby-crowned Kinglet in New Mexico has risen sharply: up 53% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+53%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ruby-crowned Kinglet Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruby-crowned Kinglet has risen sharply in New Mexico: up 53% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Ruby-crowned Kinglet Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Ruby-crowned Kinglet in New Mexico is projected to rise about 147% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.65 (95% range 0.20–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+147%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.65Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.20–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruby-crowned Kinglet in New Mexico is projected to rise about 147% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.65 (95% range 0.20–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.620.171.1
20260.630.181.1
20270.630.191.1
20280.640.191.1
20290.650.201.1

Ruby-crowned Kinglet Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Ruby-crowned Kinglet in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cebolla1220221973
Mt. Taylor1020121997
Bluewater Lake920191999
Angel Fire520021992
Vallecitos520241994
Mt. Taylor 2420242014
Cloudcroft220241982
Ojo Sarco120231968
Angel Fire 2120242005
Emory Pass120001997
Gallinas120142014
Horse Mtn119971992
Claunch 2120142001
Mcgaffey119951995

Ruby-crowned Kinglet Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.