BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruby-crowned Kinglet Population Trend in Vermont

All statesForest birds

Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Vermont has collapsed: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-78%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ruby-crowned Kinglet Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruby-crowned Kinglet has collapsed in Vermont: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Ruby-crowned Kinglet Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Vermont is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±285.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±285.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Vermont is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±285.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.32
20260.000.000.32
20270.000.000.32
20280.000.000.32
20290.000.000.32

Ruby-crowned Kinglet Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
S Wallingfrd219811970
St Johnsbury220241971
Greensboro219921971
North Pownal119761971
Stratton119751975
Landgrove120021980
East Haven120141969
Northfld Fls119961987
Middlesex120031976
East Calais119871971
Hardwick120101971
Fletcher119851985
Waterville119741974
Grand Isle119691969
Stowe120021994

Ruby-crowned Kinglet Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.