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Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Golden-crowned Kinglet Population Trend in Montana

All statesForest birds

Golden-crowned Kinglet in Montana has surged: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

11×Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Golden-crowned Kinglet Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Golden-crowned Kinglet has surged in Montana: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Golden-crowned Kinglet Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Kinglet in Montana is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.42–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.42–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Kinglet in Montana is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.42–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.352.5
20261.40.372.5
20271.50.392.5
20281.50.412.5
20291.50.422.6

Golden-crowned Kinglet Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Golden-crowned Kinglet in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Whitefish Lake7020242016
Logan Pass2120241980
Inside Road2020241990
Libby Dam1920151981
St Regis1420241977
Arlee1320241968
Skalkaho1319981992
Threemile Wa1120241994
Woodman1020241968
Ninemile720241993
Pagil Gulch720172017
Painted Rock720221992
Thompson Riv520241993
Fish Creek520241995
Cramer Creek320192017
Greenough320001996
Greenoagh 3320192019
Noxon320231995
Victor220231994
Pryor Mtn.220192019
Clinton220241975
Skalkho-Rye220221999
Hebgen Lake220192019
Kalispell120222022
Elevation Mt120222006

Golden-crowned Kinglet Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaidahomainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.