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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Golden-crowned Kinglet Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Golden-crowned Kinglet in North Carolina has held roughly steady: up 7% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

+7%Since 1987TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Golden-crowned Kinglet Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Golden-crowned Kinglet in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Golden-crowned Kinglet Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Kinglet in North Carolina is projected to fall about 36% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Kinglet in North Carolina is projected to fall about 36% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.110.000.24
20260.110.000.24
20270.110.000.24
20280.110.000.24
20290.110.000.24

Golden-crowned Kinglet Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Golden-crowned Kinglet in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Busick1419991996
French Broad River1020242004
Waterville120052005
Table Rock120042001
Highlands120222009
Cherokee120242013
Cullowhee120241993
Linville120191976

Golden-crowned Kinglet Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaidahomainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorkohiooregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.