BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Golden-crowned Kinglet Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesForest birds

Golden-crowned Kinglet in South Dakota has declined: down 42% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

-42%Since 1992TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
26YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Golden-crowned Kinglet Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Golden-crowned Kinglet in South Dakota. See the full index history below.

Golden-crowned Kinglet Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Kinglet in South Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±432.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±432.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Kinglet in South Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±432.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.240.000.60
20260.240.000.60
20270.240.000.60
20280.240.000.60
20290.240.000.60

Golden-crowned Kinglet Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Golden-crowned Kinglet in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Englewood920111992
Rochford320131998
Lightning Cr320021992
Black Fox320171992
Custer219731973
Norbeck220021996
Hill City120131996
Long Draw120241992
Roubaix Lk119881988
Silver City120021999

Golden-crowned Kinglet Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaidahomainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniatennesseeutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.