BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Golden-crowned Kinglet Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Golden-crowned Kinglet in New Mexico has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

-74%Since 1987TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Golden-crowned Kinglet Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Golden-crowned Kinglet has fallen sharply in New Mexico: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

Golden-crowned Kinglet Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Kinglet in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±312.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±312.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Kinglet in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±312.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.33
20260.000.000.33
20270.000.000.33
20280.000.000.33
20290.000.000.33

Golden-crowned Kinglet Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Golden-crowned Kinglet in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bluewater Lake220162016
Mt. Taylor 2220242024
Cebolla119851982
Ojo Sarco119901990
Angel Fire 2120082008
Angel Fire119941994
Mt. Taylor120122012
Vallecitos119951994
Cloudcroft120171982

Golden-crowned Kinglet Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaidahomainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.