BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Golden-crowned Kinglet Population Trend in Vermont

All statesForest birds

Golden-crowned Kinglet in Vermont has surged: up 186% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+186%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Golden-crowned Kinglet Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Golden-crowned Kinglet has surged in Vermont: up 186% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Golden-crowned Kinglet Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Kinglet in Vermont is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 0.56 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±115.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.36Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±115.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Kinglet in Vermont is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 0.56 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±115.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.370.001.1
20260.370.001.1
20270.370.001.1
20280.360.001.1
20290.360.001.1

Golden-crowned Kinglet Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Golden-crowned Kinglet in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gaysville620091988
Stratton320241991
Northfld Fls320181980
Middlesex320241969
Greensboro319971968
Stowe320221988
Marlboro120212021
Landgrove120241980
S Reading119701969
Post Mills119891989
S Wallingfrd119691969
St Johnsbury120241970
East Haven120241980
East Calais120241980
Newbury120001987
Hardwick120161980
Fletcher120111990
Grand Isle119911985
Newbury 2120222005

Golden-crowned Kinglet Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaidahomainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatennesseeutahwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.