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Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Golden-crowned Kinglet Population Trend in Arizona

All statesForest birds

Golden-crowned Kinglet in Arizona has risen sharply: up 54% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

+54%Since 1995TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
19YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Golden-crowned Kinglet Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Golden-crowned Kinglet in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Golden-crowned Kinglet Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Kinglet in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±261.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±261.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Kinglet in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±261.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19922030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.110.000.32
20270.110.000.32
20280.110.000.32
20290.110.000.32
20300.110.000.32

Golden-crowned Kinglet Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Golden-crowned Kinglet in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dry Park1020091994
Alpine219921992
Mt. Graham220251995
Portal119991999
Happy Jack120082002

Golden-crowned Kinglet Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaidahomainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.