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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Golden-crowned Kinglet Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Golden-crowned Kinglet in Minnesota has surged: up 517% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+517%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Golden-crowned Kinglet Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Golden-crowned Kinglet has surged in Minnesota: up 517% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Golden-crowned Kinglet Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Kinglet in Minnesota is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 0.66 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.54 (95% range 0.21–0.88). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.54Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.21–0.8895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Kinglet in Minnesota is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 0.66 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.54 (95% range 0.21–0.88). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.510.180.85
20260.520.190.85
20270.530.190.86
20280.530.200.87
20290.540.210.88

Golden-crowned Kinglet Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Golden-crowned Kinglet in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sawbill Lndg1420241973
Crane Lake720241972
Sherry Lake420221969
Waskish420242023
Sawbill Camp420241993
Red Lake320231993
Tamarac Nwr220012001
Cromwell220221969
Lockport220241973
Hart Lake220241968
Floodwood220121984
Nett Lake220212013
Jordan220231993
Bigfork219981998
Glendale220242007
Hovland120171994
Island Lake119821982
Debs120101986
Lude119981983
Mahtowa120232023
Mcgregor120161999
Babbitt120011994
Blackduck120222010
Chisholm120242022

Golden-crowned Kinglet Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaidahomainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.