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Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Golden-crowned Kinglet Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesForest birds

Golden-crowned Kinglet in Tennessee has surged: up 231% on the route-weighted index since 1991.

+231%Since 1991TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
19YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Golden-crowned Kinglet Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Golden-crowned Kinglet has surged in Tennessee: up 231% on the route-weighted index since 1991.

Golden-crowned Kinglet Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Kinglet in Tennessee is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 0.50 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.00–0.82). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±226.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.36Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±226.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
19892029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.330.000.79
20260.340.000.80
20270.350.000.81
20280.350.000.81
20290.360.000.82

Golden-crowned Kinglet Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Golden-crowned Kinglet in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Newfound Gap1020241990
Cades Cove120241989
Tellico120052005

Golden-crowned Kinglet Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaidahomainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotautahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.