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Species · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Golden-crowned Kinglet Population Trend in Alaska

All statesForest birds

Golden-crowned Kinglet in Alaska has surged: up 81% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

+81%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Golden-crowned Kinglet Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Golden-crowned Kinglet has surged in Alaska: up 81% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

Golden-crowned Kinglet Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Kinglet in Alaska is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 2.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.49–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.49–4.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Kinglet in Alaska is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 2.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.49–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.40.444.3
20272.40.454.3
20282.40.464.3
20292.40.484.3
20302.40.494.4

Golden-crowned Kinglet Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Golden-crowned Kinglet in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Craig3620251983
Thorne Bay 23420252013
Whale Pass2920241997
Mitkof Isle1920251988
Zarembo1720241993
Sitka1320241993
Beaver Creek1219771977
Wrangell (Short)1219841984
Haines1020251991
Copper River1020112003
Ketchikan920221989
Cordova920241983
Thorne Bay920121989
Petersburg819871987
Kuiu Island720102004
Zimovia Strt720251988
Stikine River620241999
Juneau620251983
Kalifonsky620252015
Hoonah620221993
Hyder620091994
Hope620251993
Chiniak520251985
Katmai N.P.520252000
Yakutat520251993

Golden-crowned Kinglet Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaidahomainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.