BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Golden-crowned Kinglet

RegulidaeForest birdsRegulus satrapa

Golden-crowned Kinglet has surged: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

11×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
784RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Golden-crowned Kinglet

The Golden-crowned Kinglet (Regulus satrapa) is a North American member of the Kinglets (Regulidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
3.5–4.5 in long (9–11 cm) — a tiny songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 784 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 30 states, most concentrated in the Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Family
Regulidae · Forest birds

Notable Golden-crowned Kinglet TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Golden-crowned Kinglet. See the full index history below.

Golden-crowned Kinglet Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Kinglet is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 0.55 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.42–0.91). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.66Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.42–0.9195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Kinglet is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 0.55 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.42–0.91). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.640.390.88
20260.640.400.89
20270.650.400.90
20280.660.410.90
20290.660.420.91

Where the Golden-crowned Kinglet Is Detected

BBS routes recording Golden-crowned Kinglet, sized by most recent count.

Golden-crowned Kinglet Population Trend by State

Golden-crowned Kinglet population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alaska+73%198358
Arizona+48%19955
California+592%197095
Colorado-20%198541
Connecticutinsufficient datan/a1
Georgiainsufficient datan/a1
Idaho+832%197529
Maine-18%196965
Maryland+144%19955
Massachusetts+266%19909
Michigan+465%197740
Minnesota+517%197124
Montana11×197129
Nevadainsufficient datan/a1
New Hampshire+176%196816
New Jerseyinsufficient datan/a1
New Mexico-74%19879
New York+205%196847
North Carolina+7%19878
Ohioinsufficient datan/a1
Oregon-15%197086
Pennsylvania-17%198229
South Dakota-42%199210
Tennessee+231%19913
Utah-8%199218
Vermont+186%197019
Washington+22%197073
West Virginia+363%197613
Wisconsin+103%196829
Wyoming-9%198119

Golden-crowned Kinglet Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Golden-crowned Kinglet population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
BCR 2+27%19875
BCR 4+85%198623
Northern Pacific Rainforest+63%1970148
Great Basin+32%197056
Northern Rockies+693%1971102
Boreal Hardwood Transition+633%196891
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain+150%197317
Atlantic Northern Forest+113%1968123
Sierra Nevada-9%197237
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau+99%198271
Badlands and Prairies-60%198212
Appalachian Mountains24×197372
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast+195%19886
Coastal California+198%197513
Sierra Madre Occidental-13%19974

Golden-crowned Kinglet Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 1015% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.