BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Golden-crowned Kinglet In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Golden-crowned Kinglet in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 659% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+659%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
91Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Golden-crowned Kinglet has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 659% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Golden-crowned Kinglet In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Kinglet in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 59% by 2030 — from 0.69 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.58–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+59%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.58–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Kinglet in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 59% by 2030 — from 0.69 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.58–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.00.531.5
20271.00.541.6
20281.10.551.6
20291.10.571.6
20301.10.581.6

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Golden-crowned Kinglet in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sawbill LndgMINNESOTA82025
JordanMINNESOTA52025
CathroMICHIGAN41992
Sherry LakeMINNESOTA42022
Crane LakeMINNESOTA42025
Red LakeMINNESOTA42025
MontrealWISCONSIN42016
FlambeauWISCONSIN42021
CreightonMICHIGAN32023
MuskallongeMICHIGAN32023
Hiawatha NfMICHIGAN32025
EnsignMICHIGAN32010
LockportMINNESOTA32025
Grand ViewWISCONSIN32017
McnaughtonWISCONSIN32018
MareniscoMICHIGAN22018
IshpemingMICHIGAN22025
WilsonMICHIGAN22010
CunardMICHIGAN22014
ShingletonMICHIGAN22023
IsabellaMICHIGAN22004
GilchristMICHIGAN22021
Skegemog PtMICHIGAN22025
RacoMICHIGAN22025
Walloon LakeMICHIGAN21990

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.