BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Golden-crowned Kinglet In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesForest birds

Golden-crowned Kinglet in Northern Rockies has surged: up 693% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+693%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
102Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Golden-crowned Kinglet has surged in Northern Rockies: up 693% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Kinglet in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.4 (95% range 1.4–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Kinglet in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.4 (95% range 1.4–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.31.23.4
20262.41.33.4
20272.41.33.5
20282.41.33.5
20292.41.43.5

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Golden-crowned Kinglet in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Whitefish LakeMONTANA702024
Sullivan Lake 2WASHINGTON242024
Logan PassMONTANA212024
GrangevilleIDAHO202024
Inside RoadMONTANA202024
Howard Mdws.OREGON202024
Lolo PassIDAHO192019
Marble CreekIDAHO192023
Libby DamMONTANA192015
AveryIDAHO182023
Eagle CreekOREGON172022
Baldy MountainIDAHO142016
St RegisMONTANA142024
PierceIDAHO132007
ArleeMONTANA132024
SkalkahoMONTANA131998
Hash RockOREGON132024
NewbridgeOREGON132024
DesolationOREGON122007
Threemile WaMONTANA112024
BarnhouseOREGON112024
Twin LakesWASHINGTON112024
WoodmanMONTANA102024
Black Mtn.OREGON102004
MivodenIDAHO82023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.