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Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Golden-crowned Kinglet In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalForest birds

Golden-crowned Kinglet in Sierra Madre Occidental has edged down: down 13% on the route-weighted index since 1997.

-13%Since 1997TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
18YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Golden-crowned Kinglet in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Golden-crowned Kinglet In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Kinglet in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 111% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+111%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Kinglet in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 111% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19922030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.160.000.52
20270.160.000.52
20280.160.000.52
20290.160.000.52
20300.160.000.52

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Golden-crowned Kinglet in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AlpineARIZONA21992
Mt. GrahamARIZONA22025
Happy JackARIZONA12008
PortalARIZONA11999

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.