BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Golden-crowned Kinglet In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Golden-crowned Kinglet in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 150% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+150%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Golden-crowned Kinglet has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 150% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Golden-crowned Kinglet In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Kinglet in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±119.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±119.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Kinglet in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±119.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.060.000.12
20260.060.000.12
20270.060.000.12
20280.060.000.12
20290.060.000.12

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Golden-crowned Kinglet in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Canadice LNEW-YORK22004
SheridanNEW-YORK22024
ParishvilleNEW-YORK22024
BalmatNEW-YORK21995
HighlandNEW-YORK12011
W ShokanNEW-YORK12009
CatskillsNEW-YORK11989
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK12016
BranchportNEW-YORK12016
RandolphNEW-YORK12009
PulaskiNEW-YORK11993
Alder CreekNEW-YORK12002
N WilmurtNEW-YORK11996
HopkintonNEW-YORK12018
WillsboroNEW-YORK12015
MiddlefieldOHIO11974
Grand IsleVERMONT11991

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.