BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Golden-crowned Kinglet In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Golden-crowned Kinglet in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 99% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

+99%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Golden-crowned Kinglet has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 99% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Kinglet in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.15 (95% range 0.03–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±70.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Kinglet in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.15 (95% range 0.03–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.140.030.26
20260.140.030.26
20270.140.030.26
20280.140.030.26
20290.150.030.26

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Golden-crowned Kinglet in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dry ParkARIZONA102009
Blackhead PkCOLORADO62019
Bryce CanyonUTAH62015
Rifle FallsCOLORADO52009
Dolores RivCOLORADO42004
RadiumCOLORADO42011
Haycamp MesaCOLORADO42021
Skyline DrivUTAH41989
ThomasvilleCOLORADO32007
Guanella PasCOLORADO32019
Steamboat L.COLORADO32024
Moon PassCOLORADO32010
Mount EvansCOLORADO32019
La Sal 3UTAH32024
Red CliffCOLORADO22017
Pinos CreekCOLORADO21989
Dunckley PasCOLORADO22024
Deadman Rd.COLORADO22024
FlattopsCOLORADO22019
Fox CreekCOLORADO22016
South ForkCOLORADO22024
Rollins PassCOLORADO22015
Owl Creek PassCOLORADO22022
HeeneyCOLORADO22019
Bluewater LakeNEW-MEXICO22016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.