BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Golden-crowned Kinglet In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

Golden-crowned Kinglet in Northern Pacific Rainforest has risen sharply: up 74% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+74%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
150Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Golden-crowned Kinglet has risen sharply in Northern Pacific Rainforest: up 74% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Golden-crowned Kinglet In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Kinglet in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 23% by 2030 — from 5.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.6 (95% range 4.2–8.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.2–8.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Kinglet in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 23% by 2030 — from 5.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.6 (95% range 4.2–8.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.44.18.8
20276.54.18.8
20286.54.18.9
20296.54.28.9
20306.64.28.9

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Golden-crowned Kinglet in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CraigALASKA362025
Thorne Bay 2ALASKA342025
Offield MtnCALIFORNIA342014
Whale PassALASKA292024
Redwood N.P. 2CALIFORNIA242013
Pilot CreekCALIFORNIA221996
TaholahWASHINGTON222022
Mitkof IsleALASKA192025
ShellrockOREGON182024
Trask SummitOREGON182023
OzetteWASHINGTON182025
ZaremboALASKA172024
MolallaOREGON172025
CinderellaOREGON162025
Mt. AdamsWASHINGTON162025
MontesandWASHINGTON152024
IlwacoWASHINGTON142025
MendotaWASHINGTON141988
SitkaALASKA132024
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA132025
SvensenOREGON131992
IssaquahWASHINGTON131987
Beaver CreekALASKA121977
Wrangell (Short)ALASKA121984
Cedar FallsWASHINGTON122014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.