BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Golden-crowned Kinglet In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

Golden-crowned Kinglet in Northern Pacific Rainforest has risen sharply: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+63%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
148Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Golden-crowned Kinglet has risen sharply in Northern Pacific Rainforest: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Golden-crowned Kinglet In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Kinglet in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.6 (95% range 4.2–9.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.2–9.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Kinglet in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.6 (95% range 4.2–9.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.54.18.8
20266.54.18.9
20276.54.28.9
20286.64.28.9
20296.64.29.0

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Golden-crowned Kinglet in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Thorne Bay 2ALASKA422024
Offield MtnCALIFORNIA342014
Whale PassALASKA292024
Mt. AdamsWASHINGTON262024
Redwood N.P. 2CALIFORNIA242013
Pilot CreekCALIFORNIA221996
ClearwaterOREGON222021
OzetteWASHINGTON222024
TaholahWASHINGTON222022
Vashon Is.WASHINGTON222024
CraigALASKA212024
HopeALASKA202024
Trask SummitOREGON182023
Mitkof IsleALASKA172024
ZaremboALASKA172024
GreenwaterWASHINGTON172024
HolmesCALIFORNIA152024
ShellrockOREGON152023
Warner Mtn.OREGON152024
MontesandWASHINGTON152024
HainesALASKA142024
MendotaWASHINGTON141988
SitkaALASKA132024
SvensenOREGON131992
IssaquahWASHINGTON131987

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.