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Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Golden-crowned Kinglet In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Golden-crowned Kinglet in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 113% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+113%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
123Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Golden-crowned Kinglet has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 113% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Kinglet in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 64% by 2029 — from 0.77 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.20–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±130.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+64%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.20–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±130.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Kinglet in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 64% by 2029 — from 0.77 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.20–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±130.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.162.3
20261.20.172.3
20271.20.182.3
20281.30.192.3
20291.30.202.3

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Golden-crowned Kinglet in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Big TwentyMAINE132008
ClarksvilleNEW-HAMPSHIRE132024
InletNEW-YORK122017
NorthfieldMAINE111981
TopsfieldMAINE111996
Big Twenty 2MAINE112009
St DavidMAINE82005
EastbrookMAINE72024
NesowadnehunMAINE72021
Carrying PlMAINE62024
Dixvil NotchNEW-HAMPSHIRE62017
GaysvilleVERMONT62009
WaiteMAINE51977
Pillsbury PdMAINE51968
Horse MtnMAINE52010
YankeetuladiMAINE52009
FranconiaNEW-HAMPSHIRE52023
SabattisNEW-YORK51983
ReedsMAINE42022
AshlandMAINE42008
Weeks BrookMAINE42016
Baker LakeMAINE42005
Dixville Notch 2NEW-HAMPSHIRE42024
North RiverNEW-YORK42006
CastineMAINE31995

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.