Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Golden-crowned Kinglet In BCR 4
Golden-crowned Kinglet in BCR 4 has surged: up 85% on the route-weighted index since 1986.
+85%Since 1986
23Routes In Region
37Years
Notable Signals
long arc increasecomputed index
Golden-crowned Kinglet has surged in BCR 4: up 85% on the route-weighted index since 1986.
Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Kinglet in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 0.58 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.00–0.80). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-34%Change by 2029
0.39Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.8095% range
±68.8%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.79 |
| 2026 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.79 |
| 2027 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| 2028 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| 2029 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.80 |
Routes In BCR 4
| Mccarthy Rd2 | ALASKA | 12 | 2024 |
| Kenny Lake | ALASKA | 5 | 2024 |
| Hatcher Pass | ALASKA | 4 | 2019 |
| Swan Lake Rd | ALASKA | 4 | 2022 |
| Anchor River | ALASKA | 4 | 2018 |
| Cohoe | ALASKA | 4 | 2016 |
| Kalifonsky | ALASKA | 3 | 2023 |
| Willow | ALASKA | 3 | 2017 |
| Kuskulana | ALASKA | 3 | 2024 |
| Birch Lake | ALASKA | 2 | 2021 |
| Homer | ALASKA | 2 | 1982 |
| Chistochina | ALASKA | 1 | 2024 |
| Skilak Lake | ALASKA | 1 | 1984 |
| Chena Hot Spring 2 | ALASKA | 1 | 2001 |
| Petersville | ALASKA | 1 | 2008 |
| Seven Lakes | ALASKA | 1 | 2023 |
| Kachemak | ALASKA | 1 | 2016 |
| Burma Road | ALASKA | 1 | 2017 |
| Coldfoot | ALASKA | 1 | 2022 |
| Unalakleet River | ALASKA | 1 | 1999 |
| Murphy Dome | ALASKA | 1 | 2018 |
| Ft. Richrdsn | ALASKA | 1 | 2021 |
| Anvik River | ALASKA | 1 | 1998 |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.