BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Golden-crowned Kinglet In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaForest birds

Golden-crowned Kinglet in Sierra Nevada has held roughly steady: down 9% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-9%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Golden-crowned Kinglet in Sierra Nevada. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Kinglet in Sierra Nevada is projected to rise about 88% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 2.6–9.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+88%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.6–9.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Kinglet in Sierra Nevada is projected to rise about 88% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 2.6–9.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.12.59.6
20266.12.59.7
20276.12.69.7
20286.12.69.7
20296.12.69.7

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Golden-crowned Kinglet in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LumberyardCALIFORNIA332024
RivertonCALIFORNIA302023
ChesterCALIFORNIA262017
Butte MeadowCALIFORNIA212014
Greenhorn MtCALIFORNIA132008
GeneseeCALIFORNIA122019
Last ChanceCALIFORNIA112019
Tahoe NfCALIFORNIA101994
Meadow ValleyCALIFORNIA92024
Lassen ParkCALIFORNIA71988
WestvilleCALIFORNIA62024
Silver CityCALIFORNIA62013
Little TruckeeCALIFORNIA62019
DownievilleCALIFORNIA52024
Kings CanyonCALIFORNIA42016
Tuolumne GroveCALIFORNIA42024
GoumazCALIFORNIA42011
StrawberryCALIFORNIA42019
Cottage SpgsCALIFORNIA31975
Bass LakeCALIFORNIA32018
Hat CreekCALIFORNIA32015
Chaos CraterCALIFORNIA32014
Pollock PinesCALIFORNIA32022
JohnsvilleCALIFORNIA22024
CoultervilleCALIFORNIA22017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.