BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Golden-crowned Kinglet In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Golden-crowned Kinglet in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 24× on the route-weighted index since 1973.

24×Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Golden-crowned Kinglet has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 24× on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Kinglet in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.26 (95% range 0.14–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.26Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.14–0.3895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Kinglet in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.26 (95% range 0.14–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.240.120.36
20260.240.130.36
20270.250.130.37
20280.250.130.37
20290.260.140.38

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Golden-crowned Kinglet in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BusickNORTH-CAROLINA141999
Glade RunWEST-VIRGINIA132002
WymerWEST-VIRGINIA122015
French Broad RiverNORTH-CAROLINA102024
Newfound GapTENNESSEE102024
Glade Run 2WEST-VIRGINIA102024
McdonoughNEW-YORK72017
Cherry SprsPENNSYLVANIA52005
FinzelMARYLAND42024
Phillips CrNEW-YORK32023
Mawr GlenPENNSYLVANIA31996
RuthbelleWEST-VIRGINIA32021
GladyWEST-VIRGINIA32024
JenningsMARYLAND22021
SteyerMARYLAND22006
LaurensNEW-YORK22011
E NewarkNEW-YORK22015
DrydenNEW-YORK22024
SwainNEW-YORK22007
Swain 2NEW-YORK22023
RasselasPENNSYLVANIA22011
LoguePENNSYLVANIA21988
Marsh HillPENNSYLVANIA22007
HonesdalePENNSYLVANIA22017
HometownPENNSYLVANIA21999

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.