BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Golden-crowned Kinglet In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinForest birds

Golden-crowned Kinglet in Great Basin has edged up: up 14% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+14%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
56Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Golden-crowned Kinglet in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Golden-crowned Kinglet In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Kinglet in Great Basin is projected to rise about 112% by 2030 — from 0.42 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.89 (95% range 0.27–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+112%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.89Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.27–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±72.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Kinglet in Great Basin is projected to rise about 112% by 2030 — from 0.42 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.89 (95% range 0.27–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.880.261.5
20270.880.261.5
20280.890.271.5
20290.890.271.5
20300.890.271.5

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Golden-crowned Kinglet in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GlacierWASHINGTON222024
Suiattle RivWASHINGTON142019
E. Mt. AdamsWASHINGTON102025
RonaldWASHINGTON92025
CarltonWASHINGTON82017
L. WenatcheeWASHINGTON82025
NewhalemWASHINGTON72024
KendallWASHINGTON72025
SistersOREGON62024
LeavenworthWASHINGTON62024
Dell SpringOREGON51988
Barnes ValOREGON51987
RimrockWASHINGTON52025
Cascade RivWASHINGTON52006
Medicine Mtn.CALIFORNIA42021
Mt HoodOREGON42025
TwispWASHINGTON41994
Index 2WASHINGTON42023
Crowder FlatCALIFORNIA32019
MadelineCALIFORNIA31998
Camp ShermanOREGON31996
ZumwaltOREGON31999
EllensburgWASHINGTON31983
White ChuckWASHINGTON32025
Blewett PassWASHINGTON32025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.