BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Golden-crowned Kinglet In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinForest birds

Golden-crowned Kinglet in Great Basin has increased: up 32% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+32%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
56Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Golden-crowned Kinglet in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Golden-crowned Kinglet In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Kinglet in Great Basin is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.93 (95% range 0.32–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.93Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.32–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Kinglet in Great Basin is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.93 (95% range 0.32–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.920.301.5
20260.920.301.5
20270.920.311.5
20280.930.311.5
20290.930.321.5

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Golden-crowned Kinglet in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GlacierWASHINGTON222024
E. Mt. AdamsWASHINGTON202024
KendallWASHINGTON172024
RimrockWASHINGTON162024
RonaldWASHINGTON152024
Blewett PassWASHINGTON152024
Suiattle RivWASHINGTON142019
CarltonWASHINGTON82017
NewhalemWASHINGTON72024
Mt HoodOREGON62024
SistersOREGON62024
LeavenworthWASHINGTON62024
Dell SpringOREGON51988
Barnes ValOREGON51987
L. WenatcheeWASHINGTON52024
Cascade RivWASHINGTON52006
Medicine Mtn.CALIFORNIA42021
Wizard FallsOREGON42023
TwispWASHINGTON41994
SnowdenWASHINGTON42024
Index 2WASHINGTON42023
Crowder FlatCALIFORNIA32019
MadelineCALIFORNIA31998
Camp ShermanOREGON31996
ZumwaltOREGON31999

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.