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Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Golden-crowned Kinglet Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

Golden-crowned Kinglet in Michigan has surged: up 465% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+465%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Golden-crowned Kinglet Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Golden-crowned Kinglet has surged in Michigan: up 465% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Golden-crowned Kinglet Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Kinglet in Michigan is projected to rise about 219% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.75 (95% range 0.24–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±138.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+219%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.75Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.24–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±138.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Kinglet in Michigan is projected to rise about 219% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.75 (95% range 0.24–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±138.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.710.201.2
20260.720.211.2
20270.730.221.2
20280.740.231.2
20290.750.241.2

Golden-crowned Kinglet Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Golden-crowned Kinglet in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Raco420231974
Cathro419921986
Betchler Lks420231993
Creighton320231985
Ensign320102006
Muskallonge320231979
Tahquamenon320241987
Marenisco220181986
Maple Grove220241990
Ishpeming220231980
Brocky Lake220241980
Wilson220101987
Cunard220141982
Shingleton220231979
Isabella220041976
Scott'S Marsh220102006
Cluster Lakes220102006
Gilchrist220211987
Walloon Lake219901990
Imp Lake220191993
Isabella 2220212017
Ontonagon120102010
Bergland120191987
Bootjack120231992
Ned Lake120221986

Golden-crowned Kinglet Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaidahomainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.