BirdAnalyst
Guild · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Forest Birds In New York

All statesNew York

86 species in this guild. As a group they are +33%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for forest birds in New York. See the full index history below.

Forest Birds In New York Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in New York is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 6.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.4 (95% range 4.8–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.8–6.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in New York is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 6.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.4 (95% range 4.8–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.44.86.0
20275.44.86.0
20285.44.86.0
20295.44.86.0
20305.44.86.0

Member Species In New York

Forest birds species in New York.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Pine SiskinFringillidae-93%
Evening GrosbeakFringillidae-83%
Red-headed WoodpeckerPicidae-79%
White-throated SparrowPasserellidae-74%
Eastern TowheePasserellidae-67%
Brown ThrasherMimidae-65%
Swainson's ThrushTurdidae-62%
Wood ThrushTurdidae-61%
Black-billed CuckooCuculidae-60%
Canada WarblerParulidae-58%
Purple FinchFringillidae-55%
Yellow-breasted ChatIcteriidae-54%
Baltimore OrioleIcteridae-50%
Field SparrowPasserellidae-49%
Magnolia WarblerParulidae-47%
White-eyed VireoVireonidae-38%
VeeryTurdidae-37%
Yellow-billed CuckooCuculidae-34%
Lincoln's SparrowPasserellidae-33%
Scarlet TanagerCardinalidae-31%
Worm-eating WarblerParulidae-25%
Black-throated Blue WarblerParulidae-17%
Marsh WrenTroglodytidae-13%
Bay-breasted WarblerParulidae-13%
Red CrossbillFringillidae-12%
Ruby-crowned KingletRegulidae-11%
Louisiana WaterthrushParulidae-10%
Rose-breasted GrosbeakCardinalidae-9%
American GoldfinchFringillidae-9%
Canada JayCorvidae-2%
Song SparrowPasserellidae+1%
American RobinTurdidae+1%
Black-backed WoodpeckerPicidae+3%
Yellow-throated VireoVireonidae+4%
Cerulean WarblerParulidae+15%
Blue JayCorvidae+16%
Golden-winged WarblerParulidae+17%
Blue-winged WarblerParulidae+19%
Hermit ThrushTurdidae+30%
Chipping SparrowPasserellidae+30%
Northern WaterthrushParulidae+40%
Mourning WarblerParulidae+40%
Common YellowthroatParulidae+42%
Northern House WrenTroglodytidae+45%
Black-throated Green WarblerParulidae+47%
Indigo BuntingCardinalidae+49%
American RedstartParulidae+64%
Wilson's WarblerParulidae+65%
Blackpoll WarblerParulidae+66%
Prairie WarblerParulidae+68%
Downy WoodpeckerPicidae+68%
Yellow WarblerParulidae+70%
Cape May WarblerParulidae+70%
Philadelphia VireoVireonidae+75%
Gray CatbirdMimidae+76%
Nashville WarblerParulidae+77%
Black-and-white WarblerParulidae+81%
White-breasted NuthatchSittidae+89%
Blackburnian WarblerParulidae+90%
Chestnut-sided WarblerParulidae+95%
Red-eyed VireoVireonidae+110%
Boreal ChickadeeParidae+115%
Hairy WoodpeckerPicidae+120%
Tennessee WarblerParulidae+135%
OvenbirdParulidae+142%
Black-capped ChickadeeParidae+149%
Ruby-throated HummingbirdTrochilidae+183%
Cedar WaxwingBombycillidae+183%
Blue-gray GnatcatcherPolioptilidae+243%
Yellow-bellied SapsuckerPicidae+250%
Blue-headed VireoVireonidae+286%
Eastern BluebirdTurdidae+303%
Red-breasted NuthatchSittidae+314%
Warbling VireoVireonidae+331%
Brown CreeperCerthiidae+344%
Pileated WoodpeckerPicidae+368%
Northern CardinalCardinalidae+404%
Golden-crowned KingletRegulidae+478%
Winter WrenTroglodytidae+497%
Northern ParulaParulidae+629%
Orchard OrioleIcteridae+642%
Pine WarblerParulidae14×
Hooded WarblerParulidae16×
Tufted TitmouseParidae25×
Red-bellied WoodpeckerPicidae89×
Carolina WrenTroglodytidae104×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.