BirdAnalyst
Guild · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Forest Birds In New York

All statesNew York

60 species in this guild. As a group they are +42%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for forest birds in New York. See the full index history below.

Forest Birds In New York Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.6 (95% range 4.1–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.1–5.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.6 (95% range 4.1–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.54.15.0
20264.64.15.0
20274.64.15.1
20284.64.15.1
20294.64.15.1

Member Species In New York

Forest birds species in New York.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Red-headed WoodpeckerPicidae-79%
Wood ThrushTurdidae-66%
Canada WarblerParulidae-62%
Magnolia WarblerParulidae-50%
Swainson's ThrushTurdidae-39%
VeeryTurdidae-39%
White-eyed VireoVireonidae-38%
Louisiana WaterthrushParulidae-33%
Worm-eating WarblerParulidae-25%
Yellow-throated VireoVireonidae-24%
Cerulean WarblerParulidae-17%
Golden-winged WarblerParulidae-14%
Black-throated Blue WarblerParulidae-13%
Bay-breasted WarblerParulidae-13%
Ruby-crowned KingletRegulidae-11%
American RobinTurdidae-4%
Black-backed WoodpeckerPicidae+3%
Mourning WarblerParulidae+3%
Nashville WarblerParulidae+7%
Northern WaterthrushParulidae+11%
Blue-winged WarblerParulidae+12%
Marsh WrenTroglodytidae+13%
Black-throated Green WarblerParulidae+25%
Common YellowthroatParulidae+34%
Yellow WarblerParulidae+42%
Black-and-white WarblerParulidae+44%
Northern House WrenTroglodytidae+46%
Hermit ThrushTurdidae+49%
American RedstartParulidae+50%
Wilson's WarblerParulidae+65%
Blackpoll WarblerParulidae+66%
Cape May WarblerParulidae+70%
Blackburnian WarblerParulidae+72%
Philadelphia VireoVireonidae+75%
Chestnut-sided WarblerParulidae+76%
Downy WoodpeckerPicidae+81%
Prairie WarblerParulidae+90%
White-breasted NuthatchSittidae+103%
Red-eyed VireoVireonidae+108%
Blue-gray GnatcatcherPolioptilidae+113%
Boreal ChickadeeParidae+115%
Hairy WoodpeckerPicidae+127%
OvenbirdParulidae+130%
Tennessee WarblerParulidae+135%
Black-capped ChickadeeParidae+143%
Brown CreeperCerthiidae+200%
Golden-crowned KingletRegulidae+205%
Yellow-bellied SapsuckerPicidae+269%
Warbling VireoVireonidae+275%
Eastern BluebirdTurdidae+285%
Pileated WoodpeckerPicidae+344%
Red-breasted NuthatchSittidae+376%
Blue-headed VireoVireonidae+380%
Winter WrenTroglodytidae+482%
Northern ParulaParulidae+504%
Hooded WarblerParulidae13×
Pine WarblerParulidae15×
Tufted TitmouseParidae24×
Red-bellied WoodpeckerPicidae89×
Carolina WrenTroglodytidae101×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.