BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Trend in New York

All statesGeneralists

Lincoln's Sparrow in New York has declined: down 33% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-33%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lincoln's Sparrow Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lincoln's Sparrow in New York. See the full index history below.

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2022, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2022TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2022 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2022, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662022
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20180.030.000.09
20190.030.000.09
20200.030.000.09
20210.030.000.09
20220.030.000.09

Lincoln's Sparrow Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Lincoln's Sparrow in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
St Regis Fls420051977
Wanakena320131987
Underwood219891967
Newcomb219851978
Inlet220172009
Gabriels120111975
Sabattis119701966
Tupper Lake119681968
Mckeever119841984
Horseshoe L.120141992
Blue Ridge N119941986
Old Forge119841972
Blue Ridge S119991999
Speculator119841984
Balmat119811980

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomainemichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-mexicooregonpennsylvaniautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.