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Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Trend in Alaska

All statesGeneralists

Lincoln's Sparrow in Alaska has edged up: up 22% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+22%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
110Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lincoln's Sparrow Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lincoln's Sparrow in Alaska. See the full index history below.

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Alaska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 8.1 (95% range 4.6–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.6–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Alaska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 8.1 (95% range 4.6–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.74.211
20267.84.311
20277.94.411
20288.04.512
20298.14.612

Lincoln's Sparrow Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Lincoln's Sparrow in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cordova5120241983
Copper River3420111995
Yakutat3020241993
Petersville3020241986
Hather Creek2920241996
Mt. Fairplay2720241993
Sourdough2320241983
Kanuti Lake2320242006
Chicken2020241992
Burma Road2020241996
Circle1920241986
Eagle1820241991
Alpenglow (Short)1720121994
Delta1720241997
Cohoe1620232012
Willow1420241993
Caribou Mtn.1420241993
Goose Bay1319821982
Kalifonsky1320231982
Chena Hot Spring 21320241999
Kanuti Canyn1320241998
Galena (Short)1220241987
Mud River1220241996
Mitkof Isle1120241988
Mccarthy Rd21120241998

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomainemichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorkoregonpennsylvaniautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.