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Species · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Trend in Alaska

All statesForest birds

Lincoln's Sparrow in Alaska has edged up: up 13% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+13%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
110Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lincoln's Sparrow Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lincoln's Sparrow in Alaska. See the full index history below.

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Alaska is projected to rise about 32% by 2030 — from 6.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.0 (95% range 4.5–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+32%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.5–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Alaska is projected to rise about 32% by 2030 — from 6.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.0 (95% range 4.5–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.64.111
20277.74.211
20287.84.311
20297.94.411
20308.04.512

Lincoln's Sparrow Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Lincoln's Sparrow in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cordova5120241983
Copper River3420111995
Hather Creek2920241996
Yakutat2720251993
Burma Road2320251996
Kanuti Lake2320242006
Sourdough2120251983
Tower Bluffs1820251997
Mitkof Isle1820251988
Alpenglow (Short)1720121994
Delta1720241997
Cohoe1620232012
Circle1520251986
Petersville1520251986
Eagle1420251991
Kalifonsky1420251982
Caribou Mtn.1420241993
Goose Bay1319821982
Kanuti Canyn1320241998
Willow1220251993
Chicken1220251992
Mud River1220241996
Livengood1020212006
Chistochina1020251990
Sheep Mtn1020251983

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomainemichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorkoregonpennsylvaniautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.