Lincoln's Sparrow
Lincoln's Sparrow has surged: up 774% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
About the Lincoln's Sparrow
The Lincoln's Sparrow (Melospiza lincolnii) is a North American member of the New World Sparrows (Passerellidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.
- Size
- 4.5–7.5 in long (12–19 cm) — a small songbird (typical for the family)
- Habitat
- Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
- Diet
- Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
- Range
- Recorded on 560 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 20 states, most concentrated in the Northern Rockies.
- Family
- Passerellidae · Forest birds
Notable Lincoln's Sparrow Trends
Lincoln's Sparrow has surged in surveyed states: up 774% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
Lincoln's Sparrow Population Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 0.54 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.68 (95% range 0.55–0.81). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.63 | 0.50 | 0.76 |
| 2026 | 0.64 | 0.51 | 0.77 |
| 2027 | 0.65 | 0.53 | 0.78 |
| 2028 | 0.67 | 0.54 | 0.79 |
| 2029 | 0.68 | 0.55 | 0.81 |
Where the Lincoln's Sparrow Is Detected
BBS routes recording Lincoln's Sparrow, sized by most recent count.
Lincoln's Sparrow Population Trend by State
| Alaska | +22% | 1975 | 110 |
| Arizona | insufficient data | n/a | 3 |
| California | -46% | 1973 | 22 |
| Colorado | +141% | 1970 | 70 |
| Idaho | 14× | 1977 | 34 |
| Maine | -77% | 1976 | 33 |
| Michigan | +25% | 1978 | 33 |
| Minnesota | +696% | 1975 | 25 |
| Montana | +757% | 1971 | 39 |
| Nevada | insufficient data | n/a | 1 |
| New Hampshire | -75% | 1968 | 6 |
| New Mexico | -15% | 1980 | 7 |
| New York | -33% | 1968 | 15 |
| Oregon | -59% | 1970 | 36 |
| Pennsylvania | insufficient data | n/a | 1 |
| Utah | +373% | 1978 | 27 |
| Vermont | -59% | 1982 | 6 |
| Washington | -35% | 1976 | 19 |
| Wisconsin | +113% | 1973 | 24 |
| Wyoming | +200% | 1970 | 49 |
Lincoln's Sparrow Population Trend by Region
Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.
| BCR 2 | -0% | 1995 | 8 |
| BCR 3 | +172% | 1999 | 4 |
| BCR 4 | +109% | 1982 | 65 |
| Northern Pacific Rainforest | 14× | 1970 | 51 |
| Great Basin | -90% | 1973 | 30 |
| Northern Rockies | +220% | 1970 | 130 |
| Boreal Hardwood Transition | +468% | 1973 | 78 |
| Atlantic Northern Forest | -83% | 1968 | 59 |
| Sierra Nevada | -71% | 1974 | 12 |
| Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau | +434% | 1970 | 105 |
Lincoln's Sparrow Conservation Status
Our route-weighted index shows it up about 774% since 1968.
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.