BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Analysis

PasserellidaeForest birdsMelospiza lincolnii

Lincoln's Sparrow has surged: up 791% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+791%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
564RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Lincoln's Sparrow

The Lincoln's Sparrow (Melospiza lincolnii) is a North American member of the New World Sparrows (Passerellidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
4.5–7.5 in long (12–19 cm) — a small songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 564 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 20 states, most concentrated in the Northern Rockies.
Family
Passerellidae · Forest birds

Notable Lincoln's Sparrow TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lincoln's Sparrow has surged in surveyed states: up 791% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow is projected to rise about 29% by 2030 — from 0.53 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.68 (95% range 0.55–0.81). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.68Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.55–0.8195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow is projected to rise about 29% by 2030 — from 0.53 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.68 (95% range 0.55–0.81). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.640.510.77
20270.650.520.78
20280.660.530.79
20290.670.540.80
20300.680.550.81

Where the Lincoln's Sparrow Is Detected

BBS routes recording Lincoln's Sparrow, sized by most recent count.

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Trend by State

Lincoln's Sparrow population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alaska+13%1975110
Arizonainsufficient datan/a3
California-35%197322
Colorado+150%197071
Idaho12×197734
Maine-77%197633
Michigan+126%197833
Minnesota+692%197525
Montana+785%197139
Nevadainsufficient datan/a1
New Hampshire-75%19686
New Mexico-32%19807
New York-33%196815
Oregon-58%197037
Pennsylvaniainsufficient datan/a1
Utah+399%197828
Vermont-59%19826
Washington-38%197620
Wisconsin+116%197324
Wyoming+241%197049

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Lincoln's Sparrow population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
BCR 2+56%19958
BCR 3+172%19994
BCR 4+87%198265
Northern Pacific Rainforest12×197051
Great Basin-91%197332
Northern Rockies+231%1970131
Boreal Hardwood Transition+572%197378
Atlantic Northern Forest-84%196859
Sierra Nevada-66%197412
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau+463%1970106

Lincoln's Sparrow Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 791% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.