BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lincoln's Sparrow In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestGeneralists

Lincoln's Sparrow in Northern Pacific Rainforest has surged: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

14×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lincoln's Sparrow has surged in Northern Pacific Rainforest: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 10% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.6–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 10% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.6–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.11.52.8
20262.21.52.8
20272.21.52.9
20282.21.62.9
20292.31.62.9

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Lincoln's Sparrow in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CordovaALASKA512024
Copper RiverALASKA342011
YakutatALASKA302024
Alpenglow (Short)ALASKA172012
Mitkof IsleALASKA112024
HainesALASKA102024
Harlequin L.ALASKA102024
KetchikanALASKA71972
Whale PassALASKA72024
Elmendorf (Short)ALASKA71985
Thompson PasALASKA62024
HopeALASKA62024
Juneau AltALASKA51985
CraigALASKA52024
PetersburgALASKA51987
Beaver CreekALASKA41977
HoonahALASKA42024
Chichagof IsALASKA42024
Kuiu IslandALASKA42010
HyderALASKA32009
Warner Mtn.OREGON32024
JuneauALASKA22024
Moose PassALASKA21985
Zimovia StrtALASKA22024
ZaremboALASKA22016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.