BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Lincoln's Sparrow in Minnesota has surged: up 696% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+696%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lincoln's Sparrow Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lincoln's Sparrow has surged in Minnesota: up 696% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Minnesota is projected to rise about 112% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.06–0.63). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+112%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.35Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–0.6395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Minnesota is projected to rise about 112% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.06–0.63). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.330.040.62
20260.340.050.62
20270.340.050.63
20280.340.060.63
20290.350.060.63

Lincoln's Sparrow Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Lincoln's Sparrow in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sherry Lake520221971
Greenbush519941994
Jordan420231993
Floodwood320241978
Cromwell220231981
Mcgregor220241994
Red Lake220191994
Cass Lake119921992
Nebish119891989
Mille Lacs120081998
Hovland120241973
Lockport120111982
Sawbill Lndg120231978
Hart Lake120241975
Oklee119901987
Crane Lake120211978
Little Fork120231993
Lude120221989
Waskish119881981
Nett Lake120182018
Sawbill Camp120241993
Babbitt120151994
Blackduck120182004
Glendale120132013
Chisholm120242019

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomainemichiganmontananevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorkoregonpennsylvaniautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.