BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Lincoln's Sparrow in Minnesota has surged: up 696% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+696%Since 1975
25Routes In State
50Years

Notable Lincoln's Sparrow Trends in Minnesota

long arc increasecomputed index

Lincoln's Sparrow has surged in Minnesota: up 696% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Minnesota is projected to rise about 112% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.06–0.63). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+112%Change by 2029
0.35Projected 2029 index
0.06–0.6395% range
±55.9%Backtest error
19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.330.040.62
20260.340.050.62
20270.340.050.63
20280.340.060.63
20290.350.060.63

Lincoln's Sparrow Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Lincoln's Sparrow in Minnesota.
Sherry Lake520221971
Greenbush519941994
Jordan420231993
Floodwood320241978
Cromwell220231981
Mcgregor220241994
Red Lake220191994
Cass Lake119921992
Nebish119891989
Mille Lacs120081998
Hovland120241973
Lockport120111982
Sawbill Lndg120231978
Hart Lake120241975
Oklee119901987
Crane Lake120211978
Little Fork120231993
Lude120221989
Waskish119881981
Nett Lake120182018
Sawbill Camp120241993
Babbitt120151994
Blackduck120182004
Glendale120132013
Chisholm120242019

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomainemichiganmontananevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorkoregonpennsylvaniautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.