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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Lincoln's Sparrow in Minnesota has surged: up 692% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+692%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lincoln's Sparrow Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lincoln's Sparrow in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Minnesota is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 0.40 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.07–0.64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.36Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–0.6495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Minnesota is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 0.40 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.07–0.64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.340.060.63
20270.340.060.63
20280.350.070.63
20290.350.070.64
20300.360.070.64

Lincoln's Sparrow Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Lincoln's Sparrow in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jordan620251993
Sherry Lake520221971
Greenbush519941994
Cromwell420251981
Floodwood320251978
Mcgregor320251994
Sawbill Lndg220251978
Sawbill Camp220251993
Red Lake220191994
Cass Lake119921992
Nebish119891989
Mille Lacs120081998
Hovland120241973
Lockport120111982
Hart Lake120251975
Oklee119901987
Crane Lake120211978
Little Fork120231993
Lude120221989
Waskish120251981
Nett Lake120182018
Babbitt120151994
Blackduck120182004
Glendale120132013
Chisholm120242019

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomainemichiganmontananevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorkoregonpennsylvaniautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.