BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Trend in Montana

All statesGeneralists

Lincoln's Sparrow in Montana has surged: up 757% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+757%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lincoln's Sparrow Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lincoln's Sparrow has surged in Montana: up 757% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Montana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.5 (95% range 0.84–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.84–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Montana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.5 (95% range 0.84–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.792.1
20261.50.802.1
20271.50.822.1
20281.50.832.1
20291.50.842.1

Lincoln's Sparrow Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Lincoln's Sparrow in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Red Rock3420241989
Chestnut2620241969
Beaverhead1920241986
Sula1720241977
Hebgen Lake1620242017
Pagil Gulch720232022
Clancy520232019
Elliston420241987
Elevation Mt320242005
Kalispell220231998
Cramer Creek220192006
Whitefish Lake220162016
Wolf Creek220192016
Maynard Coulee220242022
Wise River220241993
Lima220111995
Libby Dam120091984
St Mary120051992
Logan Pass119881988
Glen120081987
Greenough120041996
Pryor Mtn.120241995
St Regis120051986
Arlee120221984
Woodman120231975

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomainemichiganminnesotanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorkoregonpennsylvaniautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.