BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Trend in Washington

All statesGeneralists

Lincoln's Sparrow in Washington has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

-35%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lincoln's Sparrow Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lincoln's Sparrow in Washington. See the full index history below.

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Washington is projected to fall about 48% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-48%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Washington is projected to fall about 48% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.140.000.30
20260.140.000.30
20270.140.000.30
20280.140.000.30
20290.140.000.30

Lincoln's Sparrow Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Lincoln's Sparrow in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rimrock520241975
Ronald520241973
Lake Chelan520192006
Twisp219941994
L Pend O Nwr220232023
Omak Creek220242007
Mt. Adams220162016
Chewelah120052005
Asotin120142014
Winthrop120041983
Cusick120242024
Packwood120241975
Carlton120031992
Blewett Pass120241998
Mt St Helens120052005
Mt Rainier120031998
Mazama120012001
Laurier120212021
Northport119981997

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomainemichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorkoregonpennsylvaniautahvermontwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.