BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGeneralists

Lincoln's Sparrow in New Mexico has edged down: down 15% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

-15%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lincoln's Sparrow Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lincoln's Sparrow in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in New Mexico is projected to rise about 38% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in New Mexico is projected to rise about 38% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.120.000.33
20260.120.000.33
20270.120.000.33
20280.120.000.33
20290.120.000.33

Lincoln's Sparrow Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Lincoln's Sparrow in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mt. Taylor420121996
Cloudcroft320241988
Angel Fire220001992
Cebolla120231973
Ojo Sarco120241991
Angel Fire 2120232005
Gallinas119971997

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomainemichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-yorkoregonpennsylvaniautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.