BirdAnalyst
Species · Wisconsin · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Trend in Wisconsin

All statesForest birds

Lincoln's Sparrow in Wisconsin has surged: up 116% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+116%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lincoln's Sparrow Trends in WisconsinNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lincoln's Sparrow in Wisconsin. See the full index history below.

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Forecast in Wisconsin

If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Wisconsin is projected to rise about 48% by 2030 — from 0.09 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.05–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+48%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±98.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Wisconsin is projected to rise about 48% by 2030 — from 0.09 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.05–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.130.040.21
20270.130.040.21
20280.130.040.21
20290.130.050.22
20300.130.050.22

Lincoln's Sparrow Survey Routes in Wisconsin

Routes recording Lincoln's Sparrow in Wisconsin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dresser419881987
Chaffey220251987
Loraine219881988
Mcnaughton220221989
Eagle River220251971
Crandon219741974
Amberg220072006
Conover220141998
Flambeau220121999
Rhinelander220231998
Minong120251971
Grand View119821982
Bayfield120252015
Shanagolden120251981
Montreal120191975
Land O Lakes120161974
Union Twp120072007
Cumberland120052005
Couderay120022000
Exeland120032003
Rib Lake119671967
Irma120211992
Popple River120151994
Land O' Lakes 2120222017

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomainemichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorkoregonpennsylvaniautahvermontwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.