BirdAnalyst
Species · Wisconsin · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Trend in Wisconsin

All statesGeneralists

Lincoln's Sparrow in Wisconsin has surged: up 113% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+113%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lincoln's Sparrow Trends in WisconsinNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lincoln's Sparrow has surged in Wisconsin: up 113% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Forecast in Wisconsin

If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Wisconsin is projected to rise about 118% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.05–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±102.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+118%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±102.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Wisconsin is projected to rise about 118% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.05–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±102.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.040.21
20260.130.040.21
20270.130.050.22
20280.130.050.22
20290.140.050.22

Lincoln's Sparrow Survey Routes in Wisconsin

Routes recording Lincoln's Sparrow in Wisconsin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dresser419881987
Chaffey220241987
Loraine219881988
Mcnaughton220221989
Crandon219741974
Amberg220072006
Conover220141998
Flambeau220121999
Rhinelander220231998
Minong120221971
Grand View119821982
Bayfield120242015
Shanagolden120241981
Montreal120191975
Land O Lakes120161974
Union Twp120072007
Cumberland120052005
Couderay120022000
Exeland120032003
Rib Lake119671967
Irma120211992
Eagle River120241971
Popple River120151994
Land O' Lakes 2120222017

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomainemichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorkoregonpennsylvaniautahvermontwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.