BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Trend in Oregon

All statesGeneralists

Lincoln's Sparrow in Oregon has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-59%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lincoln's Sparrow Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lincoln's Sparrow has fallen sharply in Oregon: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Oregon is projected to rise about 81% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.08–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±94%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+81%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.33Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.08–0.5995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±94%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Oregon is projected to rise about 81% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.08–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±94%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.320.070.58
20260.320.070.58
20270.330.070.58
20280.330.070.58
20290.330.080.59

Lincoln's Sparrow Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Lincoln's Sparrow in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Howard Mdws.520081994
Wickiup320241969
Warner Mtn.320241992
Catlow Rim319971997
Black Mtn.320042003
Lakeview320241999
Albee220221988
Summit Pr220231983
Paisley220241973
Granite220241986
Fish Lake220162016
Unity220222022
Eagle Creek220221996
Hash Rock220241994
Shellrock119911970
Flora120232023
Cool Camp119951968
Logdell120241971
Bridgeport120112011
Wizard Falls120052005
Dell Spring119861979
Mount Vernon120171993
Clearwater120211993
Elk Lake120141972
Secret Val120002000

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomainemichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorkpennsylvaniautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.