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Species · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Trend in Oregon

All statesForest birds

Lincoln's Sparrow in Oregon has fallen sharply: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-58%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lincoln's Sparrow Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lincoln's Sparrow has fallen sharply in Oregon: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Oregon is projected to rise about 81% by 2030 — from 0.18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.07–0.58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±113.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+81%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.32Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–0.5895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±113.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Oregon is projected to rise about 81% by 2030 — from 0.18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.07–0.58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±113.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.310.060.57
20270.320.060.57
20280.320.060.57
20290.320.070.58
20300.320.070.58

Lincoln's Sparrow Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Lincoln's Sparrow in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wickiup520251969
Howard Mdws.520081994
Catlow Rim319971997
Black Mtn.320042003
Lakeview320241999
Albee220221988
Paisley220251973
Granite220251986
Fish Lake220162016
Unity220222022
Warner Mtn.220251992
Eagle Creek220251996
Shellrock119911970
Flora120232023
Summit Pr120251983
Cool Camp119951968
Logdell120241971
Bridgeport120112011
Wizard Falls120052005
Dell Spring119861979
Mount Vernon120171993
Clearwater120251993
Elk Lake120141972
Secret Val120002000
Emigrant Lk119981998

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.