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Species · Wyoming · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Trend in Wyoming

All statesForest birds

Lincoln's Sparrow in Wyoming has surged: up 241% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+241%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lincoln's Sparrow Trends in WyomingNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lincoln's Sparrow has surged in Wyoming: up 241% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Forecast in Wyoming

If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Wyoming is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.1 (95% range 1.4–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Wyoming is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.1 (95% range 1.4–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.01.32.7
20272.01.32.7
20282.01.42.7
20292.11.42.7
20302.11.42.8

Lincoln's Sparrow Survey Routes in Wyoming

Routes recording Lincoln's Sparrow in Wyoming.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ryan Park2720252012
Buckskin Mtn2220251980
Fox Park2020251992
Crazy Woman1820241979
Yellowstone1620251988
Mammoth1520251982
Hunter Peak1320251982
Bald Mtn1320251992
Hayden Val1119861986
Alpine1120251989
Savery 21020252007
Savery919891989
Ne Entrance820251982
Big Sandy720242012
Warbonnet720251990
Soda Lake520251980
Wilson420251982
Horse Creek420251980
Green River419821977
Cumberland319821978
Colter Bay 2320252021
Fiddler Lk320251980
Patrick Draw219801978
Buford220231978
West Thumb219821982

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomainemichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorkoregonpennsylvaniautahvermontwashingtonwisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.