BirdAnalyst
Species · Wyoming · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Trend in Wyoming

All statesGeneralists

Lincoln's Sparrow in Wyoming has surged: up 200% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+200%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lincoln's Sparrow Trends in WyomingNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lincoln's Sparrow has surged in Wyoming: up 200% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Forecast in Wyoming

If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Wyoming is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.3–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Wyoming is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.3–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.91.22.6
20261.91.22.6
20271.91.32.6
20282.01.32.7
20292.01.32.7

Lincoln's Sparrow Survey Routes in Wyoming

Routes recording Lincoln's Sparrow in Wyoming.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fox Park3120241992
Buckskin Mtn2320211980
Crazy Woman1820241979
Ryan Park1420232012
Bald Mtn1320241992
Hayden Val1119861986
Mammoth1120241982
Yellowstone1020221988
Horse Creek1020241980
Ne Entrance920211982
Savery919891989
Alpine920241989
Soda Lake920241980
Colter Bay 2820232021
Big Sandy720242012
Savery 2720242007
Wilson520241982
Hunter Peak420241982
Meeteetse420242024
Green River419821977
Cumberland319821978
Fiddler Lk320241980
Patrick Draw219801978
Buford220231978
West Thumb219821982

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomainemichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorkoregonpennsylvaniautahvermontwashingtonwisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.