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Species · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

Lincoln's Sparrow in Michigan has surged: up 126% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+126%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lincoln's Sparrow Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lincoln's Sparrow has surged in Michigan: up 126% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Michigan is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 0.32 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.00–0.53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±147.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.25Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±147.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Michigan is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 0.32 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.00–0.53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±147.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.250.000.53
20270.250.000.53
20280.250.000.53
20290.250.000.53
20300.250.000.53

Lincoln's Sparrow Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Lincoln's Sparrow in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gooseneck920102008
Ishpeming420251980
Brocky Lake320251980
Sidnaw320252001
Scott'S Marsh320082006
Brush Creek320152011
Pine River220181992
Ensign220092006
Muskallonge220241977
Big Island Lake220102010
Skeels220032003
Marenisco119921992
Bootjack119941994
Ned Lake120252000
Herman119911984
Crystal Fls120122004
Gibbs City120241992
Maple Grove120091984
Imp Lake120192014
Shingleton120241979
Creighton119931980
Isabella120041986
Betchler Lks120211992
Seney Nwr120251992
Cluster Lakes120102007

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.